AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Collingwood
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 32
CAR to win, 90% chance
CAR 90%10% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 6.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 76% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 57% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 24% | 8% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 92% | 84% | 73% | 64% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 81% | 68% | 49% | 33% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | HBFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 46% | 29% | 14% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Violet Patterson | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Knight | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |