AFLW · ROUND 4 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 78% chance
GEE 78%22% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 26.5 | 22.6 to 30.3 | 17.0 to 35.9 | 97% | 90% | 63% | 29% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.2 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.4 | 12.4 to 29.5 | 90% | 62% | 24% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 20.7 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.2 to 29.3 | 89% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chantal Mason | RK | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 7.6 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 25.2 | 21.5 to 29.0 | 16.0 to 34.5 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFL | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.2 to 26.4 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | CHB | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 16.0 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Mia Busch | BPL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | R | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | WR | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |