AFLW · ROUND 4 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 78% chance
GEE 78%22% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 98 | 83 to 113 | 61 to 135 | 90% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 96 | 81 to 111 | 59 to 132 | 88% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 146 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 88 | 74 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 153 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 108 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 56 | 44 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Chantal Mason | RK | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 92 | 78 to 108 | 56 to 129 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFL | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 99 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Maggie Johnstone | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Georgia Clarke | CHB | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Sophie Alexander | HFFL | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Mia Busch | BPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Alexandra Morcom | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Matilda Dyke | WR | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 64 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |