AFLW · ROUND 4 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 78% chance
GEE 78%22% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.9 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 85% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.3 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 84% | 39% | 15% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | RK | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 24% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 54% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |