AFLW · ROUND 4 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 78% chance
GEE 78%22% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.4 | 60% | 46% | 25% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 52% | 38% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 49% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 49% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantal Mason | RK | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.3 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | R | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |