AFLW · ROUND 4 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 18
GEE to win, 78% chance
GEE 78%22% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.8 | 3.0 to 12.3 | 97% | 91% | 84% | 71% | 61% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 7.3 | 5.3 to 9.4 | 2.8 to 11.9 | 96% | 89% | 80% | 71% | 56% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chantal Mason | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.2 | 2.7 to 11.7 | 96% | 88% | 78% | 71% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 42% | 31% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | R | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Walker | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | BPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |