AFLW · ROUND 4 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 0
ADE to win, 51% chance
HAW 49%51% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 27.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.0 | 19.4 to 26.6 | 14.1 to 31.9 | 94% | 75% | 39% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 19.6 | 16.3 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 28.0 | 84% | 50% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 57% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 27.3 | 23.5 to 31.2 | 17.7 to 36.9 | 98% | 92% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.0 | 17.6 to 24.5 | 12.5 to 29.6 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.7 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |