AFLW · ROUND 4 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 0
ADE to win, 51% chance
HAW 49%51% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 27.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 100 | 85 to 116 | 63 to 137 | 92% | 81% | 67% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Eliza West | R | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Emily Bates | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 64 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 62 | 49 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 122 | 105 to 138 | 82 to 162 | 99% | 97% | 91% | 81% | 69% | inside our 50% range: 129 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |