AFLW · ROUND 4 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 0
ADE to win, 51% chance
HAW 49%51% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 27.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 49% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 26% | 14% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |