AFLW · ROUND 4 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 0
ADE to win, 51% chance
HAW 49%51% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 27.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.0 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Emily Bates | C | 20.3 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 19.6 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 15.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.6 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 13.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 13.1 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 8.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 38 / inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 7.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 39 / inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 32 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 31 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 27.3 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 10.4 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 122 / inside our 50% range: 129 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.0 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 17.0 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 12.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 40 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 10.2 / outside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.2 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 57 / outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 38 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 37 / inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 7.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 32 / outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 30 / inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 30 / inside our 50% range: 24 |