AFLW · ROUND 4 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 0
ADE to win, 51% chance
HAW 49%51% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 27.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 54% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 63% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Laura Stone | HFFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 81% | 68% | 49% | 33% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 41% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 50% | 35% | 22% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.8 | 5.0 to 15.8 | 100% | 100% | 97% | 91% | 85% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 39% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 47% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |