AFLW · ROUND 4 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 24
PA to win, 84% chance
PA 84%16% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 27.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 20.6 | 17.2 to 24.1 | 12.1 to 29.1 | 88% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.4 to 26.6 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.4 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 28.2 | 24.3 to 32.1 | 18.5 to 37.9 | 99% | 93% | 73% | 41% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.6 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | FPR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 5.1 | 3.1 to 7.1 | 0.2 to 10.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |