AFLW · ROUND 4 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 24
PA to win, 84% chance
PA 84%16% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 27.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 99 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 90 | 76 to 105 | 55 to 126 | 82% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 84 | 70 to 99 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 102 | 87 to 118 | 65 to 140 | 93% | 83% | 71% | 52% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 82 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 53% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Lucy Single | C | 74 | 61 to 88 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 74 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | FPR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 41 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Paige Price | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 26 | 16 to 36 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18 |