AFLW · ROUND 4 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 24
PA to win, 84% chance
PA 84%16% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 3
MISS Actual margin 3 · 27.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Moloney | R | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.9 to 10.3 | 91% | 79% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 59% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 46% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sachi Syme | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 65% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | FPR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |