AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Fremantle
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 22
FRE to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Dana East | RR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kate Dempsey | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 26.2 | 22.4 to 30.0 | 16.8 to 35.6 | 97% | 88% | 62% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 24.0 | 20.3 to 27.7 | 14.9 to 33.1 | 96% | 79% | 45% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | CHB | 17.7 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.7 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 6.1 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |