AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Fremantle
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 22
FRE to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana East | RR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Kate Dempsey | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 73 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 39 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 67 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 117 | 100 to 133 | 77 to 156 | 98% | 94% | 86% | 76% | 60% | outside our 90% range: 76 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 103 | 88 to 119 | 66 to 141 | 93% | 84% | 72% | 55% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 100 | 84 to 115 | 63 to 137 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 49% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | CHB | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 82 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 38 | 27 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Holly Egan | HBFL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Indiana West | INT | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |