AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Fremantle
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 22
FRE to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Dempsey | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |