AFLW · ROUND 4 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Fremantle
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 22
FRE to win, 82% chance
RIC 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana East | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 16% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kate Dempsey | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 12.0 | 9.4 to 14.7 | 6.2 to 17.8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 93% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 93% | 84% | 73% | 64% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 5.2 | 3.5 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 35% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | CHB | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |