AFLW · ROUND 4 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 40
NM to win, 94% chance
STK 6%94% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 92
HIT Actual margin 92 · 51.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 20.7 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.2 to 29.3 | 89% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 19.1 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.5 | 10.2 to 26.3 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | HBFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 6.3 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 5.7 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 4.8 | 2.9 to 6.8 | 0.0 to 9.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 4.2 | 2.3 to 6.0 | 0.0 to 8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 30.7 | 26.6 to 34.8 | 20.6 to 40.8 | 100% | 96% | 84% | 57% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 29.8 | 25.8 to 33.9 | 19.9 to 39.8 | 99% | 96% | 81% | 52% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 38.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 59% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Emma King | FPR | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |