AFLW · ROUND 4 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 40
NM to win, 94% chance
STK 6%94% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 92
HIT Actual margin 92 · 51.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 79 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 37 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Olivia Vesely | HBFR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 26 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 26 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 23 | 14 to 33 | 1 to 46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 117 | 101 to 134 | 78 to 157 | 98% | 95% | 87% | 77% | 61% | inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 110 | 94 to 126 | 72 to 149 | 97% | 91% | 80% | 67% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 45% | 29% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 76 |
| Emma King | FPR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |