AFLW · ROUND 4 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 40
NM to win, 94% chance
STK 6%94% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 92
HIT Actual margin 92 · 51.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 55% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.5 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 85% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.3 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 84% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 64% | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma King | FPR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 56% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 40% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |