AFLW · ROUND 4 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 40
NM to win, 94% chance
STK 6%94% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 92
HIT Actual margin 92 · 51.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libby Birch | BPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.5 | 60% | 46% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 51% | 38% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 47% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma King | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |