AFLW · ROUND 4 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 40
NM to win, 94% chance
STK 6%94% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 92
HIT Actual margin 92 · 51.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 19.1 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 16.0 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Olivia Vesely | HBFR | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 9.5 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 40 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 7.5 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 32 / inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 32 / inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 37 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 30 / inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 26 / inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 26 / inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 23 / inside our 90% range: 9 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 30.7 / inside our 90% range: 39.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 110 / inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 29.8 / inside our 90% range: 38.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 117 / inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 19.3 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 18.8 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 15.7 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 14.4 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 13.7 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 13.3 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 12.4 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 11.1 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 40 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.9 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / outside our 90% range: 76 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 10.1 / outside our 90% range: 18.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 53 / outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 41 / inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Emma King | FPR | 8.0 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 50 |