AFLW · ROUND 4 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 40
NM to win, 94% chance
STK 6%94% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 92
HIT Actual margin 92 · 51.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 36% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 55% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 30% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 89% | 78% | 69% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 67% | 53% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 57% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 43% | 25% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma King | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |