AFLW · ROUND 4 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 34
MEL to win, 92% chance
WCE 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 2.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 24.2 | 20.5 to 27.9 | 15.1 to 33.3 | 96% | 80% | 46% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.6 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 63% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 57% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lucia Painter | INT | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FF | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ella Slocombe | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sanne Bakker | WR | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Roxanne Roux | CHB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 5.8 | 3.8 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 27.8 | 23.9 to 31.7 | 18.2 to 37.5 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 13.9 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.7 | 13.4 to 31.0 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.5 to 29.7 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.4 | 67% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 15.2 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Georgia Gall | FF | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |