AFLW · ROUND 4 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 34
MEL to win, 92% chance
WCE 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 2.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 99 | 84 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 65% | 47% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 67 | 53 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Lucia Painter | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 85 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FF | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Ella Slocombe | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Sanne Bakker | WR | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Roxanne Roux | CHB | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 26 | 16 to 36 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 98 | 83 to 113 | 61 to 135 | 90% | 79% | 64% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Kate Hore | C | 95 | 80 to 110 | 58 to 131 | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 92 | 77 to 107 | 56 to 128 | 84% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 141 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 138 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 62 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 35% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 60 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Georgia Gall | FF | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |