AFLW · ROUND 4 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 34
MEL to win, 92% chance
WCE 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 2.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 41% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lucia Painter | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Roberts | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Slocombe | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sanne Bakker | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Roxanne Roux | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 1.7 | 1.2 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 100% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gall | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 20% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |