AFLW · ROUND 4 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 34
MEL to win, 92% chance
WCE 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 2.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 6.5 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucia Painter | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sanne Bakker | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ella Slocombe | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Roxanne Roux | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 37% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Natasha Entwistle | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 93% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 87% | 75% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | CHF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 62% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | BPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Gall | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laela Ebert | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |