AFLW · ROUND 4 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
WB 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 27
MISS Actual margin 27 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 23.0 | 19.4 to 26.7 | 14.1 to 32.0 | 94% | 75% | 39% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 13.1 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.5 to 23.8 | 62% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 15.0 | 11.9 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | HBFR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isabella Grant | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FF | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 26.9 | 23.1 to 30.8 | 17.4 to 36.5 | 98% | 90% | 66% | 33% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 84% | 50% | 17% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | HFFR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.4 to 26.6 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FF | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |