AFLW · ROUND 4 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
WB 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 27
MISS Actual margin 27 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 88 | 73 to 103 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | HBFR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 48 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Isabella Grant | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FF | 33 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 115 | 99 to 131 | 76 to 154 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 74% | 57% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 90 | 75 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 81 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Montana Ham | R | 80 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 30% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Sofia Hurley | HFFR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 64 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Lucy McEvoy | INT | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Holly Cooper | FF | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |