AFLW · ROUND 4 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
WB 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 27
MISS Actual margin 27 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Isabella Grant | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.2 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | C | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |