AFLW · ROUND 4 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
WB 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 27
MISS Actual margin 27 · 27.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikala Cann | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 76% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 47% | 31% | 15% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | HBFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 48% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Hardingham | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isabella Grant | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 9.3 | 7.0 to 11.6 | 4.2 to 14.4 | 100% | 97% | 92% | 85% | 77% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 7.5 | 5.4 to 9.6 | 2.9 to 12.2 | 97% | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | HFFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 42% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 35% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 22% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Molly Thomas | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |