AFLW · ROUND 5 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 7
ADE to win, 62% chance
ADE 62%38% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 27.2 | 23.3 to 31.0 | 17.6 to 36.7 | 98% | 91% | 68% | 35% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.3 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.0 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.2 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.2 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 26.6 | 22.7 to 30.4 | 17.1 to 36.1 | 97% | 90% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 25.6 | 21.8 to 29.3 | 16.3 to 34.9 | 96% | 85% | 57% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 21.9 | 18.4 to 25.4 | 13.2 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.9 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zali Friswell | INT | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | INT | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |