AFLW · ROUND 5 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 7
ADE to win, 62% chance
ADE 62%38% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 121 | 105 to 138 | 81 to 161 | 99% | 96% | 91% | 81% | 68% | inside our 50% range: 122 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 46 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 101 | 85 to 116 | 64 to 138 | 92% | 82% | 69% | 50% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 99 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 58 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Zali Friswell | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |