AFLW · ROUND 5 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 7
ADE to win, 62% chance
ADE 62%38% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 30% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zali Friswell | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |