AFLW · ROUND 5 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 7
ADE to win, 62% chance
ADE 62%38% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 9.2 | 6.9 to 11.6 | 4.1 to 14.3 | 100% | 97% | 91% | 85% | 75% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 63% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 17% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 46% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 33% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 7.3 | 5.2 to 9.3 | 2.7 to 11.8 | 96% | 88% | 79% | 71% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.2 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 2.0 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 25% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zali Friswell | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 31% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |