AFLW · ROUND 5 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Essendon
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 14
FRE to win, 73% chance
FRE 73%27% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 0.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 24.9 | 21.2 to 28.6 | 15.7 to 34.1 | 96% | 83% | 53% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.8 | 14.2 to 32.1 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | FB | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.7 | 9.6 to 25.5 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 12.8 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | CHB | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | RK | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 25.8 | 22.0 to 29.6 | 16.4 to 35.1 | 97% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | WR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | WL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HBFL | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daria Bannister | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |