AFLW · ROUND 5 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Essendon
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 14
FRE to win, 73% chance
FRE 73%27% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 0.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 113 | 97 to 129 | 74 to 152 | 98% | 92% | 83% | 71% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 126 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 100 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 137 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | FB | 64 | 51 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 60 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | CHB | 48 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | RK | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Indiana West | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 92 | 77 to 106 | 56 to 128 | 83% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 79 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Stephanie Cain | WR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | WL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFR | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HBFL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Daria Bannister | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19 |