AFLW · ROUND 5 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Essendon
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 14
FRE to win, 73% chance
FRE 73%27% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 0.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 56% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 24% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daria Bannister | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |