AFLW · ROUND 5 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Essendon
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 14
FRE to win, 73% chance
FRE 73%27% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 0.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma O'Driscoll | FB | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.6 | 0.3 to 7.8 | 61% | 49% | 38% | 22% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 50% | 37% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | RK | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.3 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daria Bannister | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HBFL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |