AFLW · ROUND 5 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Essendon
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 14
FRE to win, 73% chance
FRE 73%27% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 0.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 10.0 | 7.6 to 12.4 | 4.7 to 15.3 | 100% | 99% | 96% | 91% | 84% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma O'Driscoll | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Indiana West | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 49% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.2 | 2.7 to 11.7 | 96% | 88% | 77% | 70% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 47% | 30% | 14% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Gee | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daria Bannister | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |