AFLW · ROUND 5 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 5
GCS to win, 58% chance
GCS 58%42% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 25.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 28.6 | 24.7 to 32.6 | 18.8 to 38.4 | 99% | 94% | 76% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.1 | 13.7 to 31.3 | 93% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | FPR | 20.5 | 17.1 to 24.0 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lily Mithen | INT | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ava Usher | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 6.3 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 13.2 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.3 | 66% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | HBFR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | CHF | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | FF | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 7.3 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |