AFLW · ROUND 5 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 5
GCS to win, 58% chance
GCS 58%42% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 25.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 103 | 88 to 119 | 66 to 141 | 93% | 84% | 72% | 54% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Anne Hatchard | FPR | 81 | 67 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Lucy Single | C | 75 | 62 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Lily Mithen | INT | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Ava Usher | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Sunny Lappin | HFFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 29 | 18 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
| Paige Price | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 54 to 126 | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Tarni White | WL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Lucille Cronin | HBFR | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 44 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jemma Rigoni | CHF | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mischa Barwin | FF | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Eliza James | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 28 | 18 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3 |