AFLW · ROUND 5 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 5
GCS to win, 58% chance
GCS 58%42% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 25.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hatchard | FPR | 3.9 | 2.5 to 5.4 | 0.2 to 7.7 | 61% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 47% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 44% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Mithen | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.3 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.2 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |