AFLW · ROUND 5 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 5
GCS to win, 58% chance
GCS 58%42% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 25.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 65% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | FPR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 57% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 9% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Mithen | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Usher | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georja Davies | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Meara Girvan | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 58% | 49% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brianna Davey | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 36% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 41% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kalinda Howarth | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza James | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |