AFLW · ROUND 5 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 1
HAW to win, 52% chance
HAW 52%48% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 9.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.8 | 14.2 to 32.1 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.3 to 29.3 | 89% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 6.1 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 24.1 | 20.4 to 27.8 | 15.0 to 33.2 | 96% | 80% | 46% | 17% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.8 | 12.7 to 29.9 | 90% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.1 | 68% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | R | 14.9 | 11.8 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 13.8 | 10.8 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 17.9 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Analea McKee | FF | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |