AFLW · ROUND 5 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 1
HAW to win, 52% chance
HAW 52%48% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 9.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 92 | 77 to 107 | 56 to 128 | 84% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Eliza West | R | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Emily Bates | C | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 87 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Daisy Flockart | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 73 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 33 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 129 | 84% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | R | 62 | 49 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 67 |
| Analea McKee | FF | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 34 | 23 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |