AFLW · ROUND 5 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 1
HAW to win, 52% chance
HAW 52%48% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 9.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.1 | 88% | 77% | 68% | 53% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Emily Bates | C | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 88% | 75% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | HFFR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 48% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 74% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 47% | 31% | 15% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 21% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Analea McKee | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |