AFLW · ROUND 5 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 32.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | C | 27.6 | 23.7 to 31.5 | 18.0 to 37.2 | 98% | 92% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 23.6 | 20.0 to 27.3 | 14.6 to 32.6 | 95% | 78% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.8 | 94% | 73% | 38% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kate Hore | FF | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.6 | 11.8 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | CHB | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.2 | 9.2 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | HBFR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | RR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FPR | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Laela Ebert | WR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mia Austin | CHF | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 6.9 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 82% | 46% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.6 | 70% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | WR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Piper Window | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Olivia Crane | BPL | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 6.7 | 4.5 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Elkington | FPR | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Grace Parsons | HFFR | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 5.0 | 3.0 to 6.9 | 0.1 to 9.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |