AFLW · ROUND 5 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 32.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 96 | 80 to 111 | 59 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Olivia Purcell | C | 94 | 79 to 109 | 58 to 131 | 86% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Kate Hore | FF | 85 | 70 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Maeve Chaplin | CHB | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | RR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Tahlia Gillard | HBFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 59 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Tayla Harris | FPR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Alyssa Bannan | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Laela Ebert | WR | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Mia Austin | CHF | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 95 | 80 to 110 | 59 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 83 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 49 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Piper Window | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | WR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Emily Elkington | FPR | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 66 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Grace Parsons | HFFR | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Olivia Crane | BPL | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 28 | 18 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |